John Quiggin was somewhat irritated, even angry, with the climate "delusionists" (as I am) and so invoked a violent image, suggesting that Rudd had given then both barrels.
I tend to think it is a matter of squarely facing the evidence as much as intellectual honesty, but with a sustained attempt on both grounds no sustained and productive inquiry, scientific or democratic, can take place, and the cause of public policy will not be advanced. The analogy that works for me is the case, as I have had experience, where a specialist has said to me that we now need to undertake a medical intervention with no guarantee that it will work, but here is the evidence, and why don't you talk to your GP about it. In those circumstances, I feel empowered to make a decision, even though I have no knowledge about kidneys. And yet, it seems the Liberarl Party in Australia, and other parties elsewhere, in an attempt to accommodate what they regard as key constituencies wish to run with the "delusionist" nonsense.
Professor Quiggin summed up his position with respect to the "delusionists":
That’s what Kevin Rudd gave Australian delusionists in this speech to the Lowy Institute. I agree with him that there is no point in being polite about this. Those who reject action to address climate change are doing so on the basis of lies propounded by tobacco hacks like Steve Milloy, bought-and-paid-for thinktanks like the IPA, loony world-government conspiracy theorists like Lord Monckton, intellectual cardsharps like Bjorn Lomborg and reflexive contrarians like Richard (’the dangers of smoking have been much exaggerated’) Lindzen. In years following this debate I have seen no-one (literally and without exception) on the delusionist side separate themselves from these hacks and cranks and present a coherent case. That’s because it is impossible for an intelligent person to reach delusionist conclusions on this issue while retaining their intellectual honesty.
So what did
Kevin Rudd say at the Lowy Institute:
Today we are approaching the crossroads. Both these policies are reaching crunch time.
. . . Action now. Not action delayed.
As one of the hottest and driest continents on earth, Australia’s environment and economy will be among the hardest and fastest hit by climate change if we do not act now. The scientific evidence from the CSIRO and other expert bodies have outlined the implications for Australia, in the absence of national and global action on climate change:
· Temperatures in Australia rising by around five degrees by the end of the century.
· By 2070, up to 40 per cent more drought months are projected in eastern Australia and up to 80 per cent more in south-western Australia.
· A fall in irrigated agricultural production in the Murray Darling Basin of over 90 per cent by 2100.
· Storm surges and rising sea levels – putting at risk over 700,000 homes and businesses around our coastlines, with insurance companies warning that preliminary estimates of the value of property in Australia exposed to the risk of land being inundated or eroded by rising sea levels range from $50 billion to $150 billion.
· Our Gross National Product dropping by nearly two and a half per cent through the course of this century from the devastation climate change would wreak on our infrastructure alone.
The Government took a plan to tackle climate change to the last election, to tackle the risks climate change poses to our planet, and especially to the health, lifestyle and livelihoods of our children.
That plan included two fundamental parts:
· First, a domestic plan of action to reduce Australia’s carbon pollution, including:
o Expanding the Renewable Energy Target to 20 per cent by 2020 (and subsequently directly investing over $2 billion in renewable energy, including investment in large scale solar generating capacity that will be three times larger than the world’s current largest project).
o A national energy efficiency strategy to reduce the energy that we can consume, and undertaking the largest investment in energy efficiency ever seen in this country.
o A Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme that will increase the cost of carbon over time and facilitate a transition to a low carbon pollution economy.
· The second part of our strategy is participation in global action to tackle climate change, including:
o ratifying the Kyoto Protocol;
o participating in global technology transfers – including Australian leadership in a global coalition to develop carbon capture and storage through the Australia-initiated Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute; and
o strong engagement towards a new post-Kyoto global agreement .
And as Kevin Rudd truly said, it is "a moment of truth". At such moments the whole paradigm of politics on the globe may shift, and I actually agree with Lord Monckton in a contrary way, since I see the the nation state system based on violence, is inimical to providing the necessary focus and action on global problems, of which the climate crisis along with inequality are urgent issues. I would envisage a largely, although not immediate, global democratic system with a global parliament, which however imperfect would allow all voices to be heard. I doubt that the nation state system can work, but pragmatism suggest that what we have to work with.
(In my view the war system associate inherently with nation states, and the peace system are fundamentally incompatible, and that violence to nature, to the interactions and inter-relationships with the set of embedded natural systems, is the intrinsic cause of the climate crisis.[evidence please])
It is one thing to identify the "delusionsists" and their possible motivations; it is another to consider those that swayed or persuaded by their arguments. If the tobacco companies can get 16% - or whatever that figure is hooked on their poison - then there PR advisers have done good, and they can continue to make profits. Apparently they are criminal, don't care, and have the legal leeway to free from prosecution, or perhaps they genuinely think that cigarettes are torchlights of freedom. Further delusions should not surprise anybody.
Bernard Keanes at Crickey saw the Four Corners program. He identifies a demographic and a psychological condition which he identifies with the One Nation support base, or opposition to an issue identified with the left or the progressives (or whoever that set of people can be described as, including many Liberal voters as well). According to Bernard Keane, One Nation voters were old (over fifty), white (Anglo-Celtic), rural people, confused and unhappy. And it seems there might be something about cognitive style as well:
One Nation supporters were primarily older, conservative, low-income, poorly-educated voters, often in regional areas. Opposition to emissions trading is strongest amongst older and Coalition voters. And they share a similar approach to communication. Both are immune to rational argument, preferring “common sense” and invented or meaningless statistics over verifiable evidence or logic. Indeed, a salient characteristic of Hansonism was its equation of inarticulacy with authenticity.
Such a disposition, I am guessing, as with the birthers in the US, lends itself to authoritarian attitudes, to manipulation by the unscrupulous by political operatives, and a sense of resentment to what they describe as "the elite". Members of the real intellectual and social elite who they have never met, so they cannot judge them, only people who tend to put them down. Nonetheless, they have real grievances and they are as people entitled to respect. What those of us, who disagree with them have to do is to understand their grievances, bearing in mind they are probably less equipped to deal with the uncertainty they we take for granted - if that thought could be expressed without sounding condescending.
In his article Bernard Keanes makes further connections. For example:
And both Hansonism and climate denialism are more accurately understood as vehicles or expressions of other, more fundamental concerns. Many One Nation supporters were victims of a decade and a half of economic reform – blue collar workers left jobless by the decline in manufacturing, or regional communities where competition policy and agribusiness had cut employment and national businesses had packed up and left. It was their sense of abandonment by mainstream Australia that fuelled their embrace of Hanson, almost regardless of her views.
Both are driven by an innate hostility to the rest of the world which, for denialists, should do something about climate change before we do anything or, in its more extreme form, wants to use climate change to destroy Australia’s national sovereignty.
The absence of cosmopoliteness lead to the Tampa and cruelty, executed by a political pragmatist, supported by a larger number of economic pragmatists. One supposes that in the politics of climate, that the short comings of such a trade off would be clearly perceived, and therefore not politically practical.
In fact, John Quiggin suggests that Rudd may be angling on this issue for a double dissolution, which is a unusual political gamble for the Prime Minister to entertain. If all the political poker chips fell Rudds way, the outcome would not be good political outcome in my view, since the Senate would be dominated by the Government and the minor parties diminished in influence.
Postscript:
The way I see it, is that climate science is somewhat like in the same position that physics was when it had to deal with Michaelson-Morley experiment and all the electromagnetic stuff, it was finding its way, but even if they have not figured everything out (even if possible) they were headed in the right direction, even to adopting the extraordinary idea that participant observer could consider sub atomic phenomena as a particle or a wave. It probably reasonable to assume that more is known about the working of the kidneys than the atmosphere, especially one that now includes record levels of carbon dioxide, not to mention methane.